Nobody knows anything
Some people think you need talent, money, connections, luck, or any combination of these, in order to succeed.
Richard Bachman is a peculiar writer who stacked the odds against him. When he released his first book, he asked his publisher not to do any marketing or advertising. He declined interviews. Not the usual way authors go on after publishing a book.
He went on to write several other books, and sold thousands of copies. Not bad, but nothing crazy. This lasted 7 years, until someone found the quality of his writing too good for such an unknown author. It was then revealed that Richard Bachman was Stephen King's pen name.
Stephen King wanted to know whether his success was due to luck, and that he sold millions of copies because of his celebrity, or if it was due to skill.
When his real identity was revealed, the books authored by Richard Bachman went on to sold many more copies, helped by Stephen King's fame.
Another author tried the same, but this only lasted a few months. J.K. Rowling wrote under a pen name and published a book, but her secret identity was quickly revealed, thanks to technology by a computer scientists whose specialty was linguistic. And just as Stephen King, while under her pen name, she sold a few thousand copies, but sold multiple times that as soon as people knew who it really was who wrote the book.
This shows several things:
- that being famous clearly helps with success,
- that despite being a world renown author—under a pen name—you won't necessarily hit home runs all the time,
- and it also shows that quality can't hide. When something's really good, people notice.
Every year, Hollywood produces about 16 blockbusters. 1 is a hit, and 10 lose millions of dollars.
If venture capitalist would know in advance which startups would become unicorns, they'd be called capitalists.
Multiple record companies rejected a small British band, until one finally signed them. They were called The Beatles.
Upon hearing Jimmy Page's first composition, a famous music producer said." These songs would sink to the bottom of the charts like Zeppelin full of lead." It was this quote that gave birth to Led Zeppelin.
Jerry Seinfeld tells every budding comedian that they won't make it. Why? Because if such an important figure tells them this, and they still keep going at it, maybe they have a shot.
The truth is, in creative work, nobody knows anything. So you're better off minding your own business anyway, and simply focusing on your work.
The essence of creative work is to not know the answers. If you always knew the answers, this wouldn't be creative work. This would be administrative stuff.
Instead of thinking that some people have the definite answer, and that you need one thing in particular in order to succeed, you're better off focus on the process. Hone your skills, do what brings joy to you, and don't worry about what you need or lack or any secret ingredient to be successful.